Recently we have witnessed a continued decline in US mortgage rates, offering a positive development for homebuyers grappling with the least affordable housing market since the 1980s. Following its drop below 7% last week for the first time since mid-August, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate further decreased to an average of 6.67% in the week ending December 21, down from 6.95% the prior week, as per data from Freddie Mac released on Thursday. This marks the eighth consecutive week of rate declines, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming year.
The average mortgage rate, derived from Freddie Mac's survey of thousands of lenders nationwide and including only borrowers with a 20% down payment and excellent credit, is luring potential homebuyers back into the market, according to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Homebuilders are also experiencing positive effects, with rising confidence and new home construction reaching its highest level since May, signaling a response to increased demand amidst low current inventory.
The recent trend of declining rates indicates a departure from the highest mortgage rates in this cycle, providing welcome relief for prospective buyers. With the Federal Reserve hinting at possible rate cuts in 2024, mortgage rates are expected to continue their descent, according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.
While lower rates are predicted to enhance affordability, the bigger hurdle for homebuyers remains the lack of inventory, keeping home prices high and rising. Despite the anticipated improvement in affordability with rates projected to fall further, only 15.5% of homes for sale in 2023 were deemed affordable for the typical U.S. household, a record low, according to a report by Redfin.
The report also highlighted a significant drop in the number of affordable homes for sale, attributing it to a decline in listings overall and the impact of elevated mortgage rates and high home prices. Despite signs of a more favorable housing market, achieving balance is expected to be a gradual process, as mortgage rates and home prices continue to surpass pre-pandemic levels. The housing market remains undersupplied, sustaining upward pressure on prices, especially as buyer demand strengthens.